NHRA - National Hot Rod Association

I'm a big baseball fan who is enamored with the sheer depth and breadth of Major League Baseball's statistics. You want to know which right-handed pitcher with a last name of six letters has the most success against left-handed batters with five-letter surnames in the third inning with a 3-1 count on a cloudy Wednesday in April of a leap year? MLB stats can probably tell you.

For years, drag racing's basic stats were simply event wins and final-round appearances, and elapsed time, speed, and reaction-time averages. A few years ago, Pete Richards, a producer on the NHRA on FOX team, started feeding the broadcasters better stats, like a "left-first" percentage that eschewed reaction-time average in favor of simply being based on whether one driver left better than his or her opponent, and the Speed Index, which tracked the percentage of full-throttle passes against all runs (qualifying and eliminations).

One baseball stat that I like is the "Quality Start" number, which is a simple yes or no based on whether a pitcher a) completes six innings and b) gives up three or fewer earned runs. If he does both, it's deemed a "Quality Start," regardless of whether he ultimately wins or loses the game.

So, I started thinking about that in drag racing terms and what might be regarded as a quality start and arrived at the conclusion that reaching the semifinals is that barrier. First, of course, is the points you get, the experience your driver and tuner have under race conditions, the momentum built, and, perhaps, even more telling, is that every team wants to reach at least the semifinals to be able to compete in the lucrative Mission #2Fast2Tasty NHRA Challenge at the next event. I can't tell you how many times teams have told me that is their biggest motivator. So, in a quality start in drag racing, you might not win the day, but you accomplished a big goal by reaching at least the semifinals.

So, here's the first cut at a "Quality Start" statistic that may not live beyond the publishing of this article or gain any traction, but that I found interesting enough to share (stats include only currently active drivers).

Top Fuel: Quality Starts Percentage

Funny Car: Quality Starts Percentage

Pro Stock: Quality Starts Percentage

Pro Stock Motorcycle: Quality Starts Percentage

Combined Top 10: Quality Starts Percentage

Of course, the semifinals are a goal, but everyone also wants to be in the final round for a chance at the coveted Wally trophy and the fame and sponsor-loving publicity that goes with it, so let's take a look at that percentage.

Top Fuel: Final-Round Percentage

Funny Car: Final-Round Percentage

Pro Stock: Final-Round Percentage

Pro Stock Motorcycle: Final-Round Percentage

Combined Top 10: Final-Round Percentage

What the numbers tell us

Smaller samples produce skewed results

The highest Quality Start percentage and final-round percentage figures are heavily influenced by drivers with relatively fewer career races. Gaige Herrera has only 57 career races but a 73.7% Quality Start rate and 61.4% final-round rate; Richard Gadson has 39 career races with a 64.1% Quality Start rate and 35.9% final-round rate; and Brayden Davis has only 16 career races with a 50.0% Quality Start rate. Top Fuel rookie Maddi Gordon's numbers are equally eye-popping but with a small sample size.

Those numbers are spectacular, but they are also more unreliable because each additional race moves the percentage more dramatically. For example, one additional non-quality start would move Brayden Davis from eight quality starts in 16 races to eight in 17, dropping from 50.0% to roughly 47.1%; by contrast, one additional non-quality start for Greg Anderson would move him from 304 in 581 to 304 in 582, barely changing his 52.3% Quality Start rate. 

Large-sample sizes give the most reliable picture

Among drivers with large career samples, Greg Anderson is the standout: 581 races, 304 quality starts, a 52.3% Quality Start rate, and a 33.7% final-round rate. That is the strongest large-sample profile across all four classes.

Other high-volume drivers also show how difficult it is to sustain extreme percentages over hundreds of races. Antron Brown sits at 553 races, 259 quality starts, and 46.8% Quality Start; Tony Schumacher has 591 races, 248 quality starts, and 42.0% Quality Start; Ron Capps has 678 races, 285 quality starts, and a 42.0% Quality Start rate; and Jeg Coughlin has 506 races, 206 quality starts, and a 40.7% Quality Start percentage.

The "best" combines high rate with meaningful volume

The most compelling cross-category résumés are the ones that blend high percentages with enough career races to make the stats more legit. In that group, Anderson, Brown, Matt Smith, Hagan, Capps, Beckman, Schumacher, and Coughlin stand out because they pair hundreds of career starts with strong Quality Start or final-round percentages, or both.

Matt Smith is especially notable in Pro Stock Motorcycle because he has 345 career races, 155 quality starts, a 44.9% Quality Start rate, and a 25.5% final-round rate, placing him behind the newer names in the class (Herrera, Gadson, Davis) in percentage but with a much larger career foundation.

It's easier to dominate in Pro Stock and Pro Stock Motorcycle

The combined Quality Start % Top 5 includes three Pro Stock Motorcycle riders — Herrera, Gadson, and Davis — plus two Pro Stock drivers: Dallas Glenn and Greg Anderson. No Top Fuel or Funny Car driver cracks the combined QS % Top 5.

The combined final-round rate list shows a similar pattern at the very top: Herrera leads, followed by Glenn, Gadson, and Anderson. The first nitro-class driver on the combined final-round list is Austin Prock at 27.7%, followed by Tony Schumacher, Antron Brown, and Justin Ashley. No Top Fuel or Funny Car driver is above a 50% Quality Start rate. The top Top Fuel Quality Start% belongs to Brown at 46.8%, while the top Funny Car Quality Start rate belongs to Hagan at 44.2%.

By comparison, Pro Stock has Glenn at 61.4% and Anderson at 52.3%, while Pro Stock Motorcycle has Herrera at 73.7% and Gadson at 64.1%.

The big takeaway

Herrera, Gadson, and Glenn own the eye-popping percentages but over relatively limited careers. Anderson, Brown, Schumacher, Capps, Hagan, Beckman, Matt Smith, and Jeg Coughlin show the strongest sustained records over larger samples.

Anderson may be the most impressive combined case because his 52.3% Quality Start rate and 33.7% final-round rate come across 581 career races.