With the fields for the Mac Tools U.S. Nationals presented by Lucas Oil now set in Pro Stock and Pro Stock Motorcycle, it’s time to begin calculating the scenarios for the Countdown to 1. In Pro Stock, the No. 1 spot is still up for grabs, and Pro Stock Motorcycle has three spots still open and four riders within striking distance.

In Pro Stock, the battle for the No. 1 spot is basically between Jeg Coughlin and Jason Line. Mike Edwards isn’t mathematically eliminated just yet, but it would be a pretty tall task for him. For Edwards to move to the top, he would need to set a national record and win the race and have Coughlin lose first round. Though Edwards is the person most likely to set a national record in the class, most of the people I’ve spoken with don’t really see that happening (stranger things have happened, though). So with that in mind, that leaves Coughlin and Line. Following qualifying, Coughlin leads Line by exactly 60 points, meaning Line needs to go four more rounds than Coughlin (Coughlin lose first round and Line win the event) to move around Coughlin for the top spot. If Line goes three rounds further than Coughlin (Coughlin loses first round and Line finishes as runner-up or Coughlin loses second round and Line wins), the pair will finish tied. The first tiebreaker is round-wins, and if my math is correct, Coughlin has the edge by one round.

The scenario is equally as interesting in Pro Stock Motorcycle as four riders — Michael Phillips, Shawn Gann, Steve Johnson, and Karen Stoffer — battle for the final three spots. By virtue of outqualifying Stoffer, Johnson has moved into a tie for 10th spot. Phillips is 44 points ahead, meaning Stoffer and/or Johnson would need to go three rounds further than him to move around him. Gann is just 18 points ahead of the 10th-place pair, so Stoffer and/or Johnson need just one more round-win than Gann to move in front of him. If Stoffer and Johnson go the same number of rounds tomorrow, they will finished tied, meaning a tiebreaker would be needed either to determine which of the two will make the Countdown playoffs or where they will be seeded if Gann or Phillips stumble and they both go around them. Entering tomorrow, Johnson has the edge in round-wins, five to four, so he would get the playoffs spot or the higher position. Junior Pippin is also still mathematically in the hunt as well, but it's a pretty tall order for him to get in. Pippin is 51 points behind Johnson and Stoffer, meaning he needs to go three rounds further than both of them. If Stoffer and Johnson both lose first round, Pippin would pass them with a semifinal finish. If one or both lose in the second round, he would then need to win the race to get the spot.